When the chips are down…

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Credit to Motley Fool… Great Read…

I looked at my portfolio today…

I didn’t look for long. To say it was ugly would be an understatement.

All that money, up in smoke, in the twinkling of an eye.

All those hard-fought gains, wiped out in an instant.

Yesterday, the ASX plunged to a one-month low. It has fallen in seven of the last 10 sessions, lead by a rout in bank shares.

Worse, BHP Billiton shares have crashed to 2009 prices, its shares down 5% more today.

Santos is in a trading halt. Gold and gold stocks have been smashed. The ASX is close to dipping back below 5,100.

So much for those predictions of ASX 6,000 by the end of this year!

At the rate we’re going, the ASX will be lucky to hold on to 5,000… a level the market first broke back through almost three years ago.

Hard as it is to admit, I did warn you dark days like these would come…

So what do you do?

Let me guess…

You sit on the sidelines, too scared to make any move.

Too scared to sell in case the market recovers.

Too scared to buy in case the market falls lower.

Yet you know the share market STILL has been the greatest wealth creation vehicle on earth.

And you know interest rates are low, and likely STILL staying low for what could be years to come.

I get it. I especially get it if you are a retiree. You’ve worked hard to build your retirement nest egg. The last thing you want is to see half of it go up in a puff of smoke.

The problem is, leaving your money in the bank, earning just 2% per annum, may confine you to a miserly retirement, watching every cent, too scared to spend up on some of life’s luxuries.

There is another way.

A way that thousands of your fellow investors have already discovered.

A way that not only earns you a thoroughly decent return on your money, but also enables you to beat the taxman, potentially setting you up to receive a tax refund.

In this low interest rate environment, we believe dividend-paying ASX shares — particularly those paying fully franked dividends — are a truly compelling alternative to cash.

Below I’ll show you how you can get started, either by adding some of the ASX’s very best dividend stocks to your portfolio, or just get started earning a decent return on your money.

But first, before you get started, know these two simple yet critically important keys to investing success…

We think the ultimate secret to wealth creation, is having the discipline to…

1) Put money to work in the stock market every single month, no matter what the market is doing, either up or down.

2) Leave your money invested in shares for the long-term, no matter what the market is doing, either up or down.

Investing during a bull market is easy. Your portfolio only goes up. Happy days.

It’s what you do during the inevitable downturns — almost exactly like we’re experiencing today — that ultimately determines whether you’ll be prince or pauper.

If you’re the type of person to freak out at the first sign of share market volatility, you’re probably better off in cash.

I’m in cash.

I’m in shares too.

Cash helps me sleep well at night.
It also gives me options.

The option to buy shares whenever I see opportunity.

The option to pile a heap of money into the market when prices are cheapest.

The option to go on holiday, to repair the car, or to upgrade the TV.

You like a bargain. You like to buy a case of wine when it’s on special. Buy one, get one free. Half price on a block of Cadbury’s chocolate.

You’d think the same thing goes with investing. The cheaper they are, the more shares people will buy.

The strange fact is the exact opposite is true.

When shares are cheap — as many appear to be now, after the market’s recent correction — many investors head for the hills.

Worse, they sell, at the worst possible moment… like now, when the share market is going through one of its inevitable wobbles.

FX Challenge.

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We are currently sitting on an unrealised profit of $3,155 AUD on our current EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD positions.

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A Few Charts of interest.

Just a bit of an update and some interesting charts to keep the mind juices flowing…

  • SPX tried to push through resistance last week, but ended the week a little softer.   Russell and emerging markets have been dragging, although the Nasdaq continued to push higher but now into resistance.  VIX has also come off very hard and short interest has fallen away, thus I believe this could be a medium term top.

Sp500

  • Nasdaq gap has held so far but pushing into resistance.   If there is any weakness this week, look for a gap fill target of ~4905

Nasdaq

  • The dollar index broke out a potential bull flag last week but has pulled back retesting the break zone.  This break is by no means out of the woods.  It does appear the the Dollar yen will push higher from here and the EURUSD will continue to break down.

Dollar index

  • Fuel for the bears – Thursday last week – long term change showing the 2 month rate of change at record lows.

vix

  • XJO (ASX200) tested 5400 but sold off sharply, following the weaker metal prices down.  5200 is a support area.

XJO

  • AUD also came off following the metal prices lower, but is holding above a decent support area just above 70c.

AUDUSD

LP

Free Portfolio Review Available.

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Do you have a current investment portfolio? Get in touch and we can discuss a portfolio review, completely free of charge and obligation free. See if your current positions are in line with the latest research and opinions out there in the market place.

Feel free to get in touch through the ‘Contact’ page.

LP

ASX200 Key Support!

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The weekly chart above has, so far, held the key support trend line base on today’s strong performance in the index.

I think we will see some choppiness in the market coming into October before we look to push higher towards the end of October. If we see these current levels hold as support in the coming weeks, pin your ears back for the run into Christmas.

LP

Direct from the Desk.

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If you want to keep up with the latest market news, suggestions and what we are currently looking at from behind the desk, ask to be included on the ‘Direct From The Desk’ newsletter sent out every Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

 

Get in touch through the ‘Contact‘ page of the website.

LP

 

 

Risky.

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Below is an article I read that puts the age old debate of ‘The Stock Market is so risky’ into perspective. I think most reasonable people get this article, once they’ve had a chance to weigh up the facts. The problem for most is working out just what shares they should buy. This is when you pick up the phone and we have a chat. Read on.

Credit to Motley Fool.

Now, I’m not about to put the boot into property investing — done sensibly, it is without doubt one of the best investments you can make. And I’m not going to preach on about how shares are so much better — each to their own I say.

But the difference in attitudes towards shares and property couldn’t be more stark, and is worth teasing apart. Especially when much of the perception is based on complete misconception.

Take the idea of risk.

Now a loss making mining exploration company with mountains of debt and an ever shrinking balance sheet is risky — super risky — but that says nothing about the long term risk associated with an established, profitable ‘blue-chip’ company.

Sure, all shares have a tendency to be volatile over the short term, but that speaks only to the risk associated with short-term price speculation. I’d wager that buying and selling properties in quick succession was equally risky — perhaps more so given the costs and difficulties of selling houses.

People also like to tell me that shares aren’t ‘real’; they are intangible assets. Bricks and mortar, on the other hand, is a solid asset that you can touch. And as such, its value is more real.

Obviously, these people have never been to a Bunnings warehouse, a Woolworths supermarket or a Commonwealth Bank. They all seem pretty real to me.

For some reason, people also like to tell me that property never loses value. Shares, on the other hand, can ‘crash’ and do so regularly.

I’d suggest these people open up a history book. Property — like all assets — does of course ‘crash’ from time to time. Ask an American or Spaniard if they think property doesn’t crash! Sure, we haven’t seen a significant pullback in price in an Australian capital city for quite some time, but right now there is a property crash underway in many mining communities. A few years back, many Gold Coast properties lost close to half of their value and have still yet to recover.

Here’s the irony.

That mate of mine, who feels I am being risky with my investments, has 2 properties; one is his residence the other an investment. Both are in the same geographic area (and hence face similar risks), and both are highly leveraged — about 90% of their value is in debt.

The investment property actually costs more in interest, fees and maintenance that what it generates in rent. He gets a tax benefit from this ‘negative gearing’, but even with that he is still losing money each year.

Every spare cent he manages to save goes towards servicing his loans. He loses sleep anytime he hears that interest rates might rise — and I don’t blame him.

Seems pretty risky to me!

Of course, if the value of his properties can grow enough over the coming years, it will all be worthwhile — he’ll likely make a great return. That’s what happens when a highly leveraged bet pays off.

But if his properties don’t appreciate in value fast enough, or if he can no longer service his obligations while he waits, he is going to get taken to the cleaners. In a BIG way.

And I’m the one taking a huge risk?

Now, what he is doing doesn’t mean that property investing in general is risky — it’s just the way he is going about it.

And it’s the same with shares. Invest in poor companies, with borrowed money and a short time horizon — well, you deserve what you get.

But if you buy a diversified range of wonderful businesses, with established and growing operations, strong balance sheets and the capacity to deliver regular and attractive tax effective dividends — and with the intention of holding tight for many years — you’ll likely do very well. Sure, you’ll face the inevitable bumps along the way, but I wager you’ll do better than most.

Morgan Stanley says ‘Time to Buy’

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If you have ever thought about investing in the markets or when to add to a portfolio, now is the greatest opportunity we will see for years to come. Read on and access the link below to see where I’m coming from…

I thought I would share with you Morgan Stanley’s latest take on international equity markets.

‘Morgan Stanley has issued a “full house” buy alert on international stock markets for the first time since early 2009, effectively calling the bottom of this summer’s equity slump.’

We have been beaten and abused by the markets throughout August and we have really felt the effects. The local market was down 17.8% at one stage from it’s highs made only 3 months prior in April this year. US and European equities are hurting but as the saying goes, ‘Buy when those are fearful’. It takes courage and your remaining capital to take advantage of these excellent opportunities when they arise. We need to take advantage of these opportunities.

Lets not forget, this is not a GFC! We have strengthening economies both in Europe and the US. We have stimulus up to our ears, encouraging investors to seek returns in the equity and housing markets. Holding cash in these environments is criminal. The market is falling on fear and bouncing on optimism of a bottom being formed. The Devaluation of the Chinese Yuan has been the catalyst across global markets for the sell off. There are concerns of the Chinese economy starting to contract but this has been in the news for the past 18 months, so why the fear now?

As I have mentioned in previous notes, I believe we will see local and offshore markets pushing back towards their highs by the end of January as this crash is all forgotten about and everyone takes advantage of the great yields and buying opportunities on display now.

Read Morgan Stanley’s take on it all:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11837853/morgan-stanley-capitulation-MSCI-Europe-equities-China-bank-stocks-1998-bonds.html

If you have the capital preserved, now is a better time than ever to begin or add to your portfolio.

Let’s chat.

LP