Trading

A Few Charts of interest.

Just a bit of an update and some interesting charts to keep the mind juices flowing…

  • SPX tried to push through resistance last week, but ended the week a little softer.   Russell and emerging markets have been dragging, although the Nasdaq continued to push higher but now into resistance.  VIX has also come off very hard and short interest has fallen away, thus I believe this could be a medium term top.

Sp500

  • Nasdaq gap has held so far but pushing into resistance.   If there is any weakness this week, look for a gap fill target of ~4905

Nasdaq

  • The dollar index broke out a potential bull flag last week but has pulled back retesting the break zone.  This break is by no means out of the woods.  It does appear the the Dollar yen will push higher from here and the EURUSD will continue to break down.

Dollar index

  • Fuel for the bears – Thursday last week – long term change showing the 2 month rate of change at record lows.

vix

  • XJO (ASX200) tested 5400 but sold off sharply, following the weaker metal prices down.  5200 is a support area.

XJO

  • AUD also came off following the metal prices lower, but is holding above a decent support area just above 70c.

AUDUSD

LP

May Take On It All – August

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It’s been a while since I have updated everyone on everything from this side of the desk and we seem to be as settled in the new office as we possibly can be given everything the market has thrown at us this year. Given the amount of time that has passed since I last updated everyone, I thought I would provide my view on the current state of play along with outlining some of the things we have been doing and what is currently in play along with some ideas going forward.

With the issues in Greece dominating the early part of the northern hemisphere summer it now seems to have stopped making the headlines of every media outlet available.  This has seen the Euro trade in a range between 1.0500 to 1.1500 against the USD.  European equity markets took the news badly on any negative news but were also very quick to rebound on any sign of an agreement or turnaround in the market. The sell offs provided good buying opportunities and we did so by purchasing some DAX calls through issued trade alerts. All trades that have been recently executed can be seen in the Performance Report that can be downloaded through the Performance Page.

Post Greece, the market then shifted its focus to China and the Federal Reserve in the US. The swings on a daily basis on the Chinese equity markets were significant to say the least but this was to be expected given the massive run up we had seen – 69.84% gain from the lows made in February this year alone!

In the US all eyes are on the September FOMC meeting in anticipation of a possible rise in interest rates. We have seen the USD strengthen against most currencies, combined with commodity prices, QE in Japan and Europe all pointing to more strength in the USD. The big question remains as to how far can this go? If we look at the Australian dollar, we have weaker commodities, slowing demand in China and the RBA still on an easing bias so holidays in the US don’t look like they are going to get any cheaper any time soon. The AUDUSD in on course to touch 70 cents this year in my opinion. On the holiday front the only positive is the lower crude oil prices which is benefiting the airlines but doesn’t quite seem to have made its way to the petrol pump for our benefit. Fuel Prices are higher now that when oil was trading around $100/barrel! – explain to me how this works?!

Looking forward I still have a preference for US equities over domestic equities but having said that, we have done quite well locally but better offshore. Stocks such as CSL have pushed to new highs, The banks have been steady and the miners have been hammered. I have been issuing investment recommendations on the ASX200 and we have simply been buying dips in the index. To date we are doing well with this strategy as you can see in the Performance Report on the Performance Page. Timing has been everything but my core view remains that we should perform better in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. With regard to the US we have also been on the right side of the currency move so not only has it been a case of calling the direction of the equity markets but the currency gains have also improved the returns.

From here, I continue to favour health care, technology, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, banks and solid trending stocks which continue to deliver. The most notable example being Walt Disney in the US up until the overnight movements. Stock down circa 10%.

I will look to put a note out, post the close of each month with an update. Please use this as an opportunity to ask any questions you might have.

LP

Pilkington Trading Performance Page

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Hi All,

A quick note publishing the establishment of the Performance page on the website.

The page will be kept up to date on a constant basis with the strategies and trades entered and the performance related to them.

The spreadsheet that is downloadable from the page will cover the details and performance of:

Let me know if you have any questions pertaining to this publication or if you would like to find out more about myself, my investment services, Gleneagle Securities or anything else.

LP

*Change to Profit Taking Level – VISA

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I issued a take profit alert on Visa on the 21st July to take profits on this open trade alert with a limit price of $9.30. The stock fell away in the sessions that followed this release and the limit price set was not filled. Overnight, Visa reported an increase in profit for the third quarter and the stock has rallied in the after hours trading session. The stock has traded up $ or xx% in after hours trade.

I am revising the limit order set on the take profit alert. Please see full report below:

V Change Take Profit 24.7.15

Buy the Dip – Apple

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Apple released it earnings and sales reports at the close of trading last night and the market wasn’t impressed. Apple sold off approximately 6.91% in after hours trading but it’s not all doom and gloom as you would be led to expect. Credit to Motley Fool on the following article who have summed it up perfectly in my opinion. I am still a buyer or Apple and these price gaps just signal buying opportunities for me. In short, expectations were out of whack, the company is continuing to grow and not by a small amount either. Buy!

Article:

Apple stock was plunging by 7% on Tuesday after official market hours, as investors showed their disappointment with the company’s earnings report for the third quarter of 2015. However, while iPhone sales were below expectations, the overall picture is not nearly as dismal as the initial price reaction would indicate.

iPhone unit sales were below Wall Street forecasts, but the device is still selling like hotcakes, and pricing trends are quite encouraging. Both total revenue and profitability were remarkably strong and better than forecasted, so investors in Apple have no reason to panic when it comes to the overall health of the business. Short-term reactions to earnings announcements are many times misguided and exaggerated, and this seems to be the case with the latest release from Apple.

Financial performance:

Total earnings per share came in at $1.85, better than the $1.81 average Wall Street forecast, and growing by almost 45% year over year. Revenue was ahead of forecasts, too, as Apple delivered $49.6 billion in total sales versus an average forecast of $49.3 billion, representing a solid 33% annual increase.

Gross margin was 39.7% of sales during the quarter, a small increase from 39.4% in the same period last year. The company’s guidance was for gross margin to be in the range of 38.5% to 39.5%, so the number came in above Apple’s own forecasts. Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet were expecting 39.5% in gross margin, meaning Apple outperformed both its own guidance and Wall Street expectations on the margin front.

Over the nine-month period ended on June 27, Apple produced $67.8 billion in operating cash flow. The company reinvested $7.6 billion in capital expenditures, leaving $60.2 billion in free cash flow. That’s a big 48% increase from $40.8 billion in free cash flow over the same nine-month period in 2014.

Apple distributed $8.6 billion to investors via dividends and $22 billion in the form of buybacks over the first nine months of fiscal 2015. When considering cash and liquid investments, Apple is sitting on a massive cash hoard of nearly $203 billion on its balance sheet.

On products and growth drivers:
The company sold 47.5 million iPhone devices during the quarter, a 35% increase over the same period last year. Wall Street analysts were on average expecting 49 million units, so the number was marginally below expectations. Prices were remarkably strong, though. The average selling price in the iPhone segment was $660, a record for Apple. In terms of revenue, iPhone sales grew 59% to $31.4 billion, and the product represents a dominant 63% of total sales.

Most companies can only envy the kind of growth Apple is enjoying in the iPhone segment, but short-term stock market reactions are usually about data versus expectations, and Wall Street was expecting even more growth from the iPhone. This is probably the biggest negative in the report.

iPad unit sales declined 18% to 10.9 million, while Mac sales increased 9% to 4.8 million computers sold during the quarter. Both products were broadly in line with expectations.

Apple didn’t provide specific sales figures for the much-awaited Apple Watch in the earnings release, but sales in the “other products segment,” which includes sales of Apple Watch, Apple TV, Beats Electronics, iPod, and third-party accessories, grew 49% to $2.6 billion.

CEO Tim Cook said in the press release that Apple Watch was off to “a strong start,” but chances are the company will face more questions regarding specific sales figures for Apple Watch during the earnings conference call.

China was quite strong, especially considering the growing concerns about economic instability in the country. Total revenue in the Greater China region jumped 112% year over year during the last quarter, reaching $13.2 billion and accounting for almost 27% of total company-level revenue.

LP

Adherium IPO – Lots of Interest.

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Hi all,

Please see the information regarding the Initial Public Offering for Adherium below:

Adherium develops, manufactures and supplies digital health technologies that address sub-optimal medicine use in chronic disease. The Company’s first product range is the Smartinhaler™ platform, comprising a range of approved medical devices (Smartinhalers) which attach to prescription inhalers to monitor inhaler actuation and provide audio and visual medication reminders, and the SmartinhalerLive™ software, which integrates the data from the Smartinhalers into a usable form via communications protocols, mobile applications and cloud based software.

Adherium’s objective is to sell the Smartinhaler™ platform directly to pharmaceutical companies, who then provide the device and supporting applications to end users via their own distribution channels and clinical networks. Additional target markets include disease management organisations and organisations conducting clinical trials.

If you are interested in taking up any of the stock on offer, pleas elet me know. This will be very tight and allocations will be small. Worth being involved in this one.

LP

Taking Profit – Visa – 5 days – 32.86% return!

Hi all,

Please see take profit alert on Visa below.

Interested in getting exposure to these trade alerts? Please call or email me through the Contact page.

LP

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V Take Profit 21.7.15.docx

Covered Call Report – Returning 17.04% YTD.

The Covered Call Strategy is a very conservative, long term, passive income strategy that can help you make money with monthly income streams, protect portfolio’s in market down turns and increases profitability in markets that are trending higher.

Learn more about this strategy through the website here :

http://pilkingtontrading.com.au/covered-calls-dow-jones/

This month’s report is below. Please let me know if you are interested in learning about this strategy and how it can be applied to an existing portfolio or even how to begin you portfolio.

LP

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Covered Calls – August 2015

New Trade Alert – Visa

On the back of our 25% + profit taken on the recent Facebook trade, my attentions have turned to Visa.

Please see the Trade Alert on Visa below:

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V Trade Alert 16.7.15

LP

Take Profit Alert – Facebook 15.7.15

Recently we entered a trade on Facebook. We are looking to close this trade with a 25% return on the option purchase.

Take Profit Alert below:

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FB Take Profit Trade Alert 15.7.15