CFD

When the chips are down…

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Credit to Motley Fool… Great Read…

I looked at my portfolio today…

I didn’t look for long. To say it was ugly would be an understatement.

All that money, up in smoke, in the twinkling of an eye.

All those hard-fought gains, wiped out in an instant.

Yesterday, the ASX plunged to a one-month low. It has fallen in seven of the last 10 sessions, lead by a rout in bank shares.

Worse, BHP Billiton shares have crashed to 2009 prices, its shares down 5% more today.

Santos is in a trading halt. Gold and gold stocks have been smashed. The ASX is close to dipping back below 5,100.

So much for those predictions of ASX 6,000 by the end of this year!

At the rate we’re going, the ASX will be lucky to hold on to 5,000… a level the market first broke back through almost three years ago.

Hard as it is to admit, I did warn you dark days like these would come…

So what do you do?

Let me guess…

You sit on the sidelines, too scared to make any move.

Too scared to sell in case the market recovers.

Too scared to buy in case the market falls lower.

Yet you know the share market STILL has been the greatest wealth creation vehicle on earth.

And you know interest rates are low, and likely STILL staying low for what could be years to come.

I get it. I especially get it if you are a retiree. You’ve worked hard to build your retirement nest egg. The last thing you want is to see half of it go up in a puff of smoke.

The problem is, leaving your money in the bank, earning just 2% per annum, may confine you to a miserly retirement, watching every cent, too scared to spend up on some of life’s luxuries.

There is another way.

A way that thousands of your fellow investors have already discovered.

A way that not only earns you a thoroughly decent return on your money, but also enables you to beat the taxman, potentially setting you up to receive a tax refund.

In this low interest rate environment, we believe dividend-paying ASX shares — particularly those paying fully franked dividends — are a truly compelling alternative to cash.

Below I’ll show you how you can get started, either by adding some of the ASX’s very best dividend stocks to your portfolio, or just get started earning a decent return on your money.

But first, before you get started, know these two simple yet critically important keys to investing success…

We think the ultimate secret to wealth creation, is having the discipline to…

1) Put money to work in the stock market every single month, no matter what the market is doing, either up or down.

2) Leave your money invested in shares for the long-term, no matter what the market is doing, either up or down.

Investing during a bull market is easy. Your portfolio only goes up. Happy days.

It’s what you do during the inevitable downturns — almost exactly like we’re experiencing today — that ultimately determines whether you’ll be prince or pauper.

If you’re the type of person to freak out at the first sign of share market volatility, you’re probably better off in cash.

I’m in cash.

I’m in shares too.

Cash helps me sleep well at night.
It also gives me options.

The option to buy shares whenever I see opportunity.

The option to pile a heap of money into the market when prices are cheapest.

The option to go on holiday, to repair the car, or to upgrade the TV.

You like a bargain. You like to buy a case of wine when it’s on special. Buy one, get one free. Half price on a block of Cadbury’s chocolate.

You’d think the same thing goes with investing. The cheaper they are, the more shares people will buy.

The strange fact is the exact opposite is true.

When shares are cheap — as many appear to be now, after the market’s recent correction — many investors head for the hills.

Worse, they sell, at the worst possible moment… like now, when the share market is going through one of its inevitable wobbles.

A Few Charts of interest.

Just a bit of an update and some interesting charts to keep the mind juices flowing…

  • SPX tried to push through resistance last week, but ended the week a little softer.   Russell and emerging markets have been dragging, although the Nasdaq continued to push higher but now into resistance.  VIX has also come off very hard and short interest has fallen away, thus I believe this could be a medium term top.

Sp500

  • Nasdaq gap has held so far but pushing into resistance.   If there is any weakness this week, look for a gap fill target of ~4905

Nasdaq

  • The dollar index broke out a potential bull flag last week but has pulled back retesting the break zone.  This break is by no means out of the woods.  It does appear the the Dollar yen will push higher from here and the EURUSD will continue to break down.

Dollar index

  • Fuel for the bears – Thursday last week – long term change showing the 2 month rate of change at record lows.

vix

  • XJO (ASX200) tested 5400 but sold off sharply, following the weaker metal prices down.  5200 is a support area.

XJO

  • AUD also came off following the metal prices lower, but is holding above a decent support area just above 70c.

AUDUSD

LP

Update and New Trade Alert

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How I currently feel. We carry on though…

It’s been a wild month of August. We have seen equity markets around the world shed billions of dollars and the losses in percentage terms managed to hit double figures. All in 3 weeks and all without any real reason in my opinion. To take advantage of what I believe will be a bumper run into the end of the year and the beginning of 2016, I have issued a near term trade alert on the DAX Index (Germany 30 Index), based on current price action, oversold indicators and the true belief that we will see the markets shake this fall and be back within the trading ranges seen before the recent collapse in the next 3 months.

There are plenty of opportunities out there and I am currently viewing WPL, WBC and TLS as great buying opportunities on local soil. Apple, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are my top names over in the US. Let me know if you would like more information about what I have my eyes on, how we are managing risk in this volatile environment and how I am looking to generate some returns.

Click the link below for the latest trade alert. As mentioned, in this environment we are looking for limited risk, unlimited potential trades due to the nature of the beast that is the general stock market at this point in time.

DAX Trade Alert 1.9.15

LP

May Take On It All – August

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It’s been a while since I have updated everyone on everything from this side of the desk and we seem to be as settled in the new office as we possibly can be given everything the market has thrown at us this year. Given the amount of time that has passed since I last updated everyone, I thought I would provide my view on the current state of play along with outlining some of the things we have been doing and what is currently in play along with some ideas going forward.

With the issues in Greece dominating the early part of the northern hemisphere summer it now seems to have stopped making the headlines of every media outlet available.  This has seen the Euro trade in a range between 1.0500 to 1.1500 against the USD.  European equity markets took the news badly on any negative news but were also very quick to rebound on any sign of an agreement or turnaround in the market. The sell offs provided good buying opportunities and we did so by purchasing some DAX calls through issued trade alerts. All trades that have been recently executed can be seen in the Performance Report that can be downloaded through the Performance Page.

Post Greece, the market then shifted its focus to China and the Federal Reserve in the US. The swings on a daily basis on the Chinese equity markets were significant to say the least but this was to be expected given the massive run up we had seen – 69.84% gain from the lows made in February this year alone!

In the US all eyes are on the September FOMC meeting in anticipation of a possible rise in interest rates. We have seen the USD strengthen against most currencies, combined with commodity prices, QE in Japan and Europe all pointing to more strength in the USD. The big question remains as to how far can this go? If we look at the Australian dollar, we have weaker commodities, slowing demand in China and the RBA still on an easing bias so holidays in the US don’t look like they are going to get any cheaper any time soon. The AUDUSD in on course to touch 70 cents this year in my opinion. On the holiday front the only positive is the lower crude oil prices which is benefiting the airlines but doesn’t quite seem to have made its way to the petrol pump for our benefit. Fuel Prices are higher now that when oil was trading around $100/barrel! – explain to me how this works?!

Looking forward I still have a preference for US equities over domestic equities but having said that, we have done quite well locally but better offshore. Stocks such as CSL have pushed to new highs, The banks have been steady and the miners have been hammered. I have been issuing investment recommendations on the ASX200 and we have simply been buying dips in the index. To date we are doing well with this strategy as you can see in the Performance Report on the Performance Page. Timing has been everything but my core view remains that we should perform better in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. With regard to the US we have also been on the right side of the currency move so not only has it been a case of calling the direction of the equity markets but the currency gains have also improved the returns.

From here, I continue to favour health care, technology, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, banks and solid trending stocks which continue to deliver. The most notable example being Walt Disney in the US up until the overnight movements. Stock down circa 10%.

I will look to put a note out, post the close of each month with an update. Please use this as an opportunity to ask any questions you might have.

LP

Taking Profit – Visa – 5 days – 32.86% return!

Hi all,

Please see take profit alert on Visa below.

Interested in getting exposure to these trade alerts? Please call or email me through the Contact page.

LP

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V Take Profit 21.7.15.docx

Trade Alert – Buy US WTI Crude Oil

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Hi all,

I’m a firm believer in this trade alert just issued. You can see the trade alert details further down by clicking the text. I think we will see a strong rebound in the price of oil in the months to come. Please look at the seasonal chart below to see the average price action of Crude Oil over the past 20 years. As you can see, coming into February is when we should start to see a strong move higher as the Northern hemisphere looks to begin their summer. With such massive sell offs in the last 6 months, I think this trade is primed to see some strong returns.

Clients, please contact me about how you can get crude oil exposure in your account through a futures trade, futures options, commodity CFD’s or stock/CFD ETF products with exposure to the oil price.

Non-clients, please ask me about how you can look to open an account with BBY and myself in order to invest in these trade alerts. Visit www.pilkingtontrading.com.au for more on client benefits and the types of accounts available to you through BBY.

Seasonal Chart:

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You can view the Trade Alert by clicking here.

Monsanto Trade Alert Update – 25.00% Profit

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Hi all,

In addition to the recent Trade Alert on Monsanto Company, issued a little over two weeks ago, Pilkington Trading is issuing an update to place limit orders to take profits on the current position held.

Please click the link below to view the current Trade Alert update:

Monsanto Trade Update 21.8.14

If you have any questions, concerns or would like to enquire about how Pilkington Trading can help you reach your Investment and Trading goals, please feel free to contact us.

Please note that trade alerts will not generally published for public viewing as this is a client benefit. An exception has been made and may be made in the future to give you an understanding of the material and guidance clients receive. All clients will have been emailed this alert along with our current views on the stock and other market research.