It’s been a while since I have updated everyone on everything from this side of the desk and we seem to be as settled in the new office as we possibly can be given everything the market has thrown at us this year. Given the amount of time that has passed since I last updated everyone, I thought I would provide my view on the current state of play along with outlining some of the things we have been doing and what is currently in play along with some ideas going forward.
With the issues in Greece dominating the early part of the northern hemisphere summer it now seems to have stopped making the headlines of every media outlet available. This has seen the Euro trade in a range between 1.0500 to 1.1500 against the USD. European equity markets took the news badly on any negative news but were also very quick to rebound on any sign of an agreement or turnaround in the market. The sell offs provided good buying opportunities and we did so by purchasing some DAX calls through issued trade alerts. All trades that have been recently executed can be seen in the Performance Report that can be downloaded through the Performance Page.
Post Greece, the market then shifted its focus to China and the Federal Reserve in the US. The swings on a daily basis on the Chinese equity markets were significant to say the least but this was to be expected given the massive run up we had seen – 69.84% gain from the lows made in February this year alone!
In the US all eyes are on the September FOMC meeting in anticipation of a possible rise in interest rates. We have seen the USD strengthen against most currencies, combined with commodity prices, QE in Japan and Europe all pointing to more strength in the USD. The big question remains as to how far can this go? If we look at the Australian dollar, we have weaker commodities, slowing demand in China and the RBA still on an easing bias so holidays in the US don’t look like they are going to get any cheaper any time soon. The AUDUSD in on course to touch 70 cents this year in my opinion. On the holiday front the only positive is the lower crude oil prices which is benefiting the airlines but doesn’t quite seem to have made its way to the petrol pump for our benefit. Fuel Prices are higher now that when oil was trading around $100/barrel! – explain to me how this works?!
Looking forward I still have a preference for US equities over domestic equities but having said that, we have done quite well locally but better offshore. Stocks such as CSL have pushed to new highs, The banks have been steady and the miners have been hammered. I have been issuing investment recommendations on the ASX200 and we have simply been buying dips in the index. To date we are doing well with this strategy as you can see in the Performance Report on the Performance Page. Timing has been everything but my core view remains that we should perform better in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. With regard to the US we have also been on the right side of the currency move so not only has it been a case of calling the direction of the equity markets but the currency gains have also improved the returns.
From here, I continue to favour health care, technology, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, banks and solid trending stocks which continue to deliver. The most notable example being Walt Disney in the US up until the overnight movements. Stock down circa 10%.
I will look to put a note out, post the close of each month with an update. Please use this as an opportunity to ask any questions you might have.
LP
Pilkington Trading 